Robotic Nation?
Sunday, July 27, 2003 by Frogboy | Discussion: WinCustomize News
What he talks about is happening now. And it's hard to really see how big of a deal it will become without looking at the big picture.When I go to the local Farmer Jack to get groceries, nearly half of the check out lanes are self checkouts now. When I get my gas, it's also done without dealing with a human. ATMs are nothing new but you can see where things go. In the article, Mr. Brain (yes, that's really his name) talks about a recent experience at McDonalds where they ordered from a kiosk rather from a person.
Think about that for a minute. Imagine if every fast food restraunt was able to replace the 4 to 6 people working on any given shift with machines that allowed people to just order for themselves. According to the last census, something like 10 million people work in the fast food industry. You could see 8 million of them elimiated in less than a decade. What's going to replace those jobs?
But that's really only the start of the process. Mr. Brain talks about the next big leap for technology -- fast imaging. When I was in college, I worked at Old Kent Bank as a "Proof operator". When you write a check to someone, it eventually comes back to your bank. My job was to read the chicken scratch put on by us humans and put in the bank number and amount that was then encoded onto the check so that a machine could read it. But by my Junior year, that job had gone away. The new proof machines from Unisys had such powerful imaging systems on them that they could read the handwriting of 98% of people correctly. Today, virtually all checks are done this way. So my summer job was gone (so I went and founded Stardock to pay the bills but I'm not sure that is a general solution for people).
But such machines are big and hugely expensive. But in time, imaging will be something that is nearly perfect and available on devices very small. Why is this a big deal? Because imaging recognition combined with robots like those from Honda (which will only get better in the coming decades) will create machines that can do all kinds of manual labor. Cleaning hotels, streets, restraunts, etc. At some point, a good chunk of the staff in the service industry will be replaced by machines. Not in the near future but in the next 30 to 50 years almost certainly.
The same is true with the manufacturing sector. If one thinks machines are replacing manufacturing jobs now, wait until the machines can "see" and "recognize" things. That's been the real stumbbling block for machines in the workplace. Without visual recognition, there is only so much they can do. Add in voice recognition and you have a pretty useful unpaid menial worker.
Now, some people may say that 50 years is too soon. But imagine where things were in 1900. No airplanes. No cars. Etc. By 1950 we had supersonic flight, nuclear weapons, television, movies, radio, etc. 50 years. And the pace of technological breakthrus is only increasing. The Internet, as we know it today, didn't really exist in a recognizeable form until a little over 10 years ago. Now, I can access the net from my portable cell phone.
So it's not a huge stretch of the imagination that within 50 years we'll see a lot of these things come to pass.
The question is, what will all those people do?
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TheFourthVapor
Reply #22 Monday, July 28, 2003 9:39 PM
Reply #22 Monday, July 28, 2003 9:39 PM
The comment made by zxtt about creating a new "utopia" made me start thinking about the way that would work in our government. I finally came to the conclusion.... It wouldn't, the robot workforce could only work in a communistic setting.... Think about that one for a minute.
REMenard
Reply #23 Tuesday, July 29, 2003 1:52 PM
Reply #23 Tuesday, July 29, 2003 1:52 PM
Interesting thought, if things should move toward such a direction the current situation in the USA may be a small peek at what may happen.
Instead of robotic replacement, USA has been losing jobs to cheaper off shore work forces. This has been happening for 20 years or so.
America might of faced what we face now back in the 70's or 80's if it was not for the Telecoms & Computer Era. It back filled and pushed the economy forward, the loss of manufacturing was much less felt.
Now we come to the maturity of the Telecoms & Computer era and have cheaper work force alternatives off shore.
I hate to say it but I don't see a new boon era to rise up and save the economy. As long as things run on a money and max profit base, the line "it will free people up to do more important things" is just spin control. Well unless you want to be like a monk maybe.
I also would hazard a guess that in time some European countries will also face similar job issues.
So right now America is getting a sneak peek at such a theory as job replacement. How this is dealt with may be a good indicator of the future or if we can make it that far.
Once the jobless rate reaches critical mass it will be a self perpetuating expanding uncontrolled situation. The ripples will move through private, then local and state government and then federal government. The less workers the smaller the consumer base, the golden goose. As more jobs are moved or cut to reduce costs the smaller the consumer base gets.
For the USA today we need a radical shift in how companies, unions, republicans & democrats, wall street, employees, and government regard and operate with the economy. I.E. a realistic view of the economy, financial responsibility and their roles in it.
OK, my best guess is this would tick off every group I mentioned above, equal opertunity lol.
As Lincoln said "United we stand, divided we fall"
For robotic work and humans to coexist you need more of a Star Trek type world. It's anyones guess if we will be lucky enough that the path we take will even get us kind of close to such a life.
Instead of robotic replacement, USA has been losing jobs to cheaper off shore work forces. This has been happening for 20 years or so.
America might of faced what we face now back in the 70's or 80's if it was not for the Telecoms & Computer Era. It back filled and pushed the economy forward, the loss of manufacturing was much less felt.
Now we come to the maturity of the Telecoms & Computer era and have cheaper work force alternatives off shore.
I hate to say it but I don't see a new boon era to rise up and save the economy. As long as things run on a money and max profit base, the line "it will free people up to do more important things" is just spin control. Well unless you want to be like a monk maybe.
I also would hazard a guess that in time some European countries will also face similar job issues.
So right now America is getting a sneak peek at such a theory as job replacement. How this is dealt with may be a good indicator of the future or if we can make it that far.
Once the jobless rate reaches critical mass it will be a self perpetuating expanding uncontrolled situation. The ripples will move through private, then local and state government and then federal government. The less workers the smaller the consumer base, the golden goose. As more jobs are moved or cut to reduce costs the smaller the consumer base gets.
For the USA today we need a radical shift in how companies, unions, republicans & democrats, wall street, employees, and government regard and operate with the economy. I.E. a realistic view of the economy, financial responsibility and their roles in it.
OK, my best guess is this would tick off every group I mentioned above, equal opertunity lol.
As Lincoln said "United we stand, divided we fall"
For robotic work and humans to coexist you need more of a Star Trek type world. It's anyones guess if we will be lucky enough that the path we take will even get us kind of close to such a life.
joetheblow
Reply #24 Tuesday, July 29, 2003 2:19 PM
Reply #24 Tuesday, July 29, 2003 2:19 PM
Funny. Article is funny.
Firstly, REMenard, your right about the economy and losing jobs to outside countries could be a major problem (more than what is in the Brain story)
Remeber all those riots and protests for the globalization of something or other?? They were trying to protect the poor countries laborors but in reality, they benifit more and the industrialized countries people loose work to cheaper labor in other poor countries (who get money become more educated and end up asking the same price for work 10 years later)
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No Utopia. As long as there are humans involved there will be some sort of power play. I do believe though capitalism will crash into some sort of type of solcialism but it will be a gradual change (as in not actually a crash)
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The article is funny.
1) No one would stand for 51% of the population unemployeed.
2) The economy demands that the home population can buy goods. If the home population is poor (even with the businesses using out of country workers) the business will suffer.
3) Reguardless of who created the machine, if it become conscience of itself, it can no longer be owned. At that point it would not be a machine but a form of life.
4) Thin about this: Allot of the jobs mention that would be lost are jobs that many people would not want anyway. Many people are now becoming what is called knowledge workers where they are educated, and able to do more than one task.
A full employment economy has an amount of workers that or unemployeed, have to move to get a better job, or go into a new field. The technology talked about here and in the future will not stop that.
What should we worry about? Invation of privatecy and a system that can tell you might commit a crime. (With AI and allot of knowledge based systems along with mutliprosessing computers there is more of a chance that they will know who you are and what you can do befor eyou do in the future)
Firstly, REMenard, your right about the economy and losing jobs to outside countries could be a major problem (more than what is in the Brain story)
Remeber all those riots and protests for the globalization of something or other?? They were trying to protect the poor countries laborors but in reality, they benifit more and the industrialized countries people loose work to cheaper labor in other poor countries (who get money become more educated and end up asking the same price for work 10 years later)
-----------------------
No Utopia. As long as there are humans involved there will be some sort of power play. I do believe though capitalism will crash into some sort of type of solcialism but it will be a gradual change (as in not actually a crash)
---------------------------
The article is funny.
1) No one would stand for 51% of the population unemployeed.
2) The economy demands that the home population can buy goods. If the home population is poor (even with the businesses using out of country workers) the business will suffer.
3) Reguardless of who created the machine, if it become conscience of itself, it can no longer be owned. At that point it would not be a machine but a form of life.
4) Thin about this: Allot of the jobs mention that would be lost are jobs that many people would not want anyway. Many people are now becoming what is called knowledge workers where they are educated, and able to do more than one task.
A full employment economy has an amount of workers that or unemployeed, have to move to get a better job, or go into a new field. The technology talked about here and in the future will not stop that.
What should we worry about? Invation of privatecy and a system that can tell you might commit a crime. (With AI and allot of knowledge based systems along with mutliprosessing computers there is more of a chance that they will know who you are and what you can do befor eyou do in the future)
UnoHu
Reply #25 Wednesday, July 30, 2003 1:30 PM
Reply #25 Wednesday, July 30, 2003 1:30 PM
This may be a broken record...
all the issues that frogboy pointed out in the original post (and some of those by others in comments) have a lot to do with money. The only reason anyone would worry about unemployment would be money. Money has always been a determining factor in ones status, a government or corporate decision, whatever... I say the true challenge behind all of this is what happens to money. I've got to be honest...I hate money. The only reason I have a job is to live and do the things I like to do. And I can barely accomplish this with the decisions that I made in the past.
The Skins Factory noted an episode from the Animatrix DVD. I think with the way people (in general) are today that something similar would happen if robots became concious. People are greedy and will always strive to be in control using any means possible. If people create a new life you can bet that the new life will think like people. If the human race does not become subject to this new life then the new life will more than likely be erradicated only to become a controlled "new life 2.0".
If machines don't "wake up" then I see a world where those that don't make money are kicked to the curb to fend for themselves because those with status, power ,(money) will be too greedy to give it up. If theses people realize money would be more useful if it didn't exist then the human race would end up in a Star Trek type scenario.
I don't think money will disappear - unfortunately, it's human nature to be at the top.
Rip away...
all the issues that frogboy pointed out in the original post (and some of those by others in comments) have a lot to do with money. The only reason anyone would worry about unemployment would be money. Money has always been a determining factor in ones status, a government or corporate decision, whatever... I say the true challenge behind all of this is what happens to money. I've got to be honest...I hate money. The only reason I have a job is to live and do the things I like to do. And I can barely accomplish this with the decisions that I made in the past.
The Skins Factory noted an episode from the Animatrix DVD. I think with the way people (in general) are today that something similar would happen if robots became concious. People are greedy and will always strive to be in control using any means possible. If people create a new life you can bet that the new life will think like people. If the human race does not become subject to this new life then the new life will more than likely be erradicated only to become a controlled "new life 2.0".
If machines don't "wake up" then I see a world where those that don't make money are kicked to the curb to fend for themselves because those with status, power ,(money) will be too greedy to give it up. If theses people realize money would be more useful if it didn't exist then the human race would end up in a Star Trek type scenario.
I don't think money will disappear - unfortunately, it's human nature to be at the top.
Rip away...
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Reply #21 Monday, July 28, 2003 7:24 PM
Unemployment in already above 60%!
If you add up ALL your taxes - it comes out to above 75%!