Robotic Nation?
Sunday, July 27, 2003 by Frogboy | Discussion: WinCustomize News
What he talks about is happening now. And it's hard to really see how big of a deal it will become without looking at the big picture.When I go to the local Farmer Jack to get groceries, nearly half of the check out lanes are self checkouts now. When I get my gas, it's also done without dealing with a human. ATMs are nothing new but you can see where things go. In the article, Mr. Brain (yes, that's really his name) talks about a recent experience at McDonalds where they ordered from a kiosk rather from a person.
Think about that for a minute. Imagine if every fast food restraunt was able to replace the 4 to 6 people working on any given shift with machines that allowed people to just order for themselves. According to the last census, something like 10 million people work in the fast food industry. You could see 8 million of them elimiated in less than a decade. What's going to replace those jobs?
But that's really only the start of the process. Mr. Brain talks about the next big leap for technology -- fast imaging. When I was in college, I worked at Old Kent Bank as a "Proof operator". When you write a check to someone, it eventually comes back to your bank. My job was to read the chicken scratch put on by us humans and put in the bank number and amount that was then encoded onto the check so that a machine could read it. But by my Junior year, that job had gone away. The new proof machines from Unisys had such powerful imaging systems on them that they could read the handwriting of 98% of people correctly. Today, virtually all checks are done this way. So my summer job was gone (so I went and founded Stardock to pay the bills but I'm not sure that is a general solution for people).
But such machines are big and hugely expensive. But in time, imaging will be something that is nearly perfect and available on devices very small. Why is this a big deal? Because imaging recognition combined with robots like those from Honda (which will only get better in the coming decades) will create machines that can do all kinds of manual labor. Cleaning hotels, streets, restraunts, etc. At some point, a good chunk of the staff in the service industry will be replaced by machines. Not in the near future but in the next 30 to 50 years almost certainly.
The same is true with the manufacturing sector. If one thinks machines are replacing manufacturing jobs now, wait until the machines can "see" and "recognize" things. That's been the real stumbbling block for machines in the workplace. Without visual recognition, there is only so much they can do. Add in voice recognition and you have a pretty useful unpaid menial worker.
Now, some people may say that 50 years is too soon. But imagine where things were in 1900. No airplanes. No cars. Etc. By 1950 we had supersonic flight, nuclear weapons, television, movies, radio, etc. 50 years. And the pace of technological breakthrus is only increasing. The Internet, as we know it today, didn't really exist in a recognizeable form until a little over 10 years ago. Now, I can access the net from my portable cell phone.
So it's not a huge stretch of the imagination that within 50 years we'll see a lot of these things come to pass.
The question is, what will all those people do?
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Styl-X Design
Reply #2 Sunday, July 27, 2003 4:20 PM
Reply #2 Sunday, July 27, 2003 4:20 PM
Really intresting story frogboy, but I don't think its going to happen, what you will get when a lot of people get job-less is that people are going to boycot it, like 'I am not buying any product made by a robot'.
atleast thats my oppinion
atleast thats my oppinion
Frogboy
Reply #3 Sunday, July 27, 2003 4:34 PM
Reply #3 Sunday, July 27, 2003 4:34 PM
Have you boycotted any supermarkets that have self-check out lanes? Do you boycot banks that have ATMs?
This stuff won't happen overnight. It'll be gradual.
This stuff won't happen overnight. It'll be gradual.
Styl-X Design
Reply #5 Sunday, July 27, 2003 6:51 PM
Reply #5 Sunday, July 27, 2003 6:51 PM
No, but that hasn't lead to a big scale work-less people. We boy-cot work that is done by children too right? 
TheSkinsFactory
Reply #6 Sunday, July 27, 2003 6:52 PM
Reply #6 Sunday, July 27, 2003 6:52 PM
It sounds like the origin story from the Animatrix dvd. What happens when the robots say "enough - i want my freedom". Then we get into the Terminator storyline and the human race becomes toast. Makes me think we will "construct" our own demise. Scary. Hey but on the flipside you could order up a "girlfriend" who wants to do "it" 24/7 and never nags. I'll take 2 please. 
Ande
Reply #7 Sunday, July 27, 2003 6:54 PM
Reply #7 Sunday, July 27, 2003 6:54 PM
With all that unemployment there would be anarchy/riots and a mighty revolution resulting in the destruction of anything automated (including the washing machine). Then you can start all over again. 
Ande is glad he will not be around to see. 
Ande is glad he will not be around to see. 
Frogboy
Reply #8 Sunday, July 27, 2003 6:56 PM
Reply #8 Sunday, July 27, 2003 6:56 PM
Jesh, I was thinking much the same thing. Of course, that woudl only be if humans gave the robots the ability to learn and truly "think". Hopefully we'll be smart enough to keep the machines programmedto do a specified task and nothing more. I.e. Ensure they are specialized.
Tecumseh
Reply #9 Sunday, July 27, 2003 9:20 PM
Reply #9 Sunday, July 27, 2003 9:20 PM
The advance of sophisticated mechanization,automation, robotics, etc., is so insidious that these technologies become current realities before most folks are aware.
Whether it becomes a serious problem remains to be seen. The world survived the Industrial Revolution and is, so far, surviving the Information & Communication Revolution. People will have to be educated to do other things. Those that cannot adjust will end up in the dilithium chrystal mines out in the asteroid belt.
Whether it becomes a serious problem remains to be seen. The world survived the Industrial Revolution and is, so far, surviving the Information & Communication Revolution. People will have to be educated to do other things. Those that cannot adjust will end up in the dilithium chrystal mines out in the asteroid belt.
CyBeRiANxx
Reply #10 Sunday, July 27, 2003 10:47 PM
Reply #10 Sunday, July 27, 2003 10:47 PM
There is one problem to all of this. By using these systems and getting rid of jobs for actual "humans", they're also eliminating their source of income in the end...
You need people working for people to BUY your products...
Catch22 I guess you could say
You need people working for people to BUY your products...
Catch22 I guess you could say
Frogboy
Reply #11 Sunday, July 27, 2003 11:24 PM
Reply #11 Sunday, July 27, 2003 11:24 PM
I agree. That is something that the article talks about.
In today's world, we trade labor for money. But what happens when there is not that much labor left to be done by humans that pays?
I think a lot of people are unaware what is going to happen once machines can "see". We're getting very close to that day. In 10 to 20 years, machines that can see (i.e. recognize things visually) that are reasonably priced will be common. That's been what's held back a lot of places where machines could take over.
But other things are much more staright forward. Kiosks replacing people taking orders at restraunts (especially fast food). Checkout lines, etc.
When every product can have a grain sized transponder on it to remove shop lifting as a serious problem you'll see wholesale adaption of automated checkout lines (self check out). That's a good chunk of people.
Similarly putting out stock is something that machines will be able to do. They already do this in some warehoues. I worked on AGVs in college which delivered mail to people and that was over 10 years ago. Wait until Sam's or Walmart starts replacing stockboys with machines that put things away. It's going to happen sooner than we think. What will those people do?
In today's world, we trade labor for money. But what happens when there is not that much labor left to be done by humans that pays?
I think a lot of people are unaware what is going to happen once machines can "see". We're getting very close to that day. In 10 to 20 years, machines that can see (i.e. recognize things visually) that are reasonably priced will be common. That's been what's held back a lot of places where machines could take over.
But other things are much more staright forward. Kiosks replacing people taking orders at restraunts (especially fast food). Checkout lines, etc.
When every product can have a grain sized transponder on it to remove shop lifting as a serious problem you'll see wholesale adaption of automated checkout lines (self check out). That's a good chunk of people.
Similarly putting out stock is something that machines will be able to do. They already do this in some warehoues. I worked on AGVs in college which delivered mail to people and that was over 10 years ago. Wait until Sam's or Walmart starts replacing stockboys with machines that put things away. It's going to happen sooner than we think. What will those people do?
Tecumseh
Reply #12 Monday, July 28, 2003 12:38 AM
Reply #12 Monday, July 28, 2003 12:38 AM
Over thirty years ago many companies in the distribution business had automated warehouses. Little trains were programmed to go through the warehouse, stop where each item was stored and a human would deposit the ordered item on the train and it was off to the next SKU.
The displaced persons will need to be crosstrained. In the meantime how about giving me the email address of that cute little female robot!!
The displaced persons will need to be crosstrained. In the meantime how about giving me the email address of that cute little female robot!!
XX
Reply #13 Monday, July 28, 2003 1:45 AM
Reply #13 Monday, July 28, 2003 1:45 AM
hmm if labor will not b e a basis of the ecocomy, then something else will replace it.
what will be repacement, that will be the question to ponder about
if revoltion comes, i hope robots will not kill all, just to do a revolt or something. well we will see... or not if too far in future.
what will be repacement, that will be the question to ponder about
if revoltion comes, i hope robots will not kill all, just to do a revolt or something. well we will see... or not if too far in future.
bizzad
Reply #14 Monday, July 28, 2003 5:28 AM
Reply #14 Monday, July 28, 2003 5:28 AM
There are several 'holes' in these theories:
A) Moore's 'law' is not a law. It's just something someone said and so far is proven true. This doesn't say that it will hold for time eternal.
Creating a new form of life and then using it for forced (slave) labour is one of the most hideously immoral suggestions I have ever heard of. No human being in their right minds will ever stand for it. There will be mass protests, revolts, etc.
C) 50% or more unemployment rate equals to more than half the population deep in poverty. Since 50% plus one gives democratic majority these people will be democratically and morally justified to revolt and overthrow the power structure that oppresses them.
D) Industry will never adopt a solution which sinks the general public in poverty, since the industry's economic growth is sustained by the very same public's economic well-being. Introducing robots that will work more efficiently but will, at the same time, deprive humans of the ability to consume, is not a viable solution and will lead to the colapse of economical structures.
Mr. Brain's danger-talk obviously serves no other purpose than to give him (more) publicity in the expence of those 'believers', the same people that have condamned technology since the days of the steam engine. All in all, Mr. Brains words are not worth the paper they're on, which is probably why he has typed them in the first place.
COZ
A) Moore's 'law' is not a law. It's just something someone said and so far is proven true. This doesn't say that it will hold for time eternal.
Creating a new form of life and then using it for forced (slave) labour is one of the most hideously immoral suggestions I have ever heard of. No human being in their right minds will ever stand for it. There will be mass protests, revolts, etc.C) 50% or more unemployment rate equals to more than half the population deep in poverty. Since 50% plus one gives democratic majority these people will be democratically and morally justified to revolt and overthrow the power structure that oppresses them.
D) Industry will never adopt a solution which sinks the general public in poverty, since the industry's economic growth is sustained by the very same public's economic well-being. Introducing robots that will work more efficiently but will, at the same time, deprive humans of the ability to consume, is not a viable solution and will lead to the colapse of economical structures.
Mr. Brain's danger-talk obviously serves no other purpose than to give him (more) publicity in the expence of those 'believers', the same people that have condamned technology since the days of the steam engine. All in all, Mr. Brains words are not worth the paper they're on, which is probably why he has typed them in the first place.
COZ
zxtt
Reply #15 Monday, July 28, 2003 12:31 PM
Reply #15 Monday, July 28, 2003 12:31 PM
COZ:
A) Yep, and I find it unlikely that we'll sail through every roadblock unabated. Some things DO have limits (like the speed of light, 100M sprint time etc.).
I'm not sure we can create a new form of life, as such. AI doesn't necessarily equal life. Do you think a machine would "enjoy" time at the beach? What if we could do it (make machines like us) - all we should do is not do it (ie. limit them to what makes them useful to us).
C) That assumes that democracy will continue as it is, or that it won't be subverted. You can't get elected without money. Who has the money? Why, the 50% with jobs. Revolution? Maybe, but technology makes that harder. Robotic police, anyone?
D) Industry? Each company is in a life and death struggle with rest of its industry. You think they're going to agree to not try to get an edge (without cheating). More likely is government will enforce something like this when unemployment rises above a certain level and most everyone understands why.
I seem to recall some economists of the past suggesting that capitalism will eventually cause the demise of itself and democracy as we know it, to be replaced by some form of socialism. I can't help visualizing something like "Brave New World". The thing is, robotics seems to open the way to some kind of utopia (ie. plenty for everyone, including leisure time) - the problem is how to keep score - who gets how much. Perhaps those with jobs live like kings, everyone else just lives comfortably (on welfare).
A) Yep, and I find it unlikely that we'll sail through every roadblock unabated. Some things DO have limits (like the speed of light, 100M sprint time etc.).
I'm not sure we can create a new form of life, as such. AI doesn't necessarily equal life. Do you think a machine would "enjoy" time at the beach? What if we could do it (make machines like us) - all we should do is not do it (ie. limit them to what makes them useful to us).C) That assumes that democracy will continue as it is, or that it won't be subverted. You can't get elected without money. Who has the money? Why, the 50% with jobs. Revolution? Maybe, but technology makes that harder. Robotic police, anyone?
D) Industry? Each company is in a life and death struggle with rest of its industry. You think they're going to agree to not try to get an edge (without cheating). More likely is government will enforce something like this when unemployment rises above a certain level and most everyone understands why.
I seem to recall some economists of the past suggesting that capitalism will eventually cause the demise of itself and democracy as we know it, to be replaced by some form of socialism. I can't help visualizing something like "Brave New World". The thing is, robotics seems to open the way to some kind of utopia (ie. plenty for everyone, including leisure time) - the problem is how to keep score - who gets how much. Perhaps those with jobs live like kings, everyone else just lives comfortably (on welfare).
StumpMan
Reply #16 Monday, July 28, 2003 1:21 PM
Reply #16 Monday, July 28, 2003 1:21 PM
Just a thought off the top of my head, but.....Wouldnt' they need more people to keep the machines functioning? If you replace 8 million people with 8 million machines, who fixes them? Would we (humans) move to a more technical labor field to supplement the robotic workforce?
StumpMan
Reply #17 Monday, July 28, 2003 1:25 PM
Reply #17 Monday, July 28, 2003 1:25 PM
Sorry about that, for some reason I kept getting a Microsoft database error after entering my comment, and it seems to have picked up the comments even after giving me the error code.
My Apologies To All
My Apologies To All
zxtt
Reply #18 Monday, July 28, 2003 2:19 PM
Reply #18 Monday, July 28, 2003 2:19 PM
New forms of business always add jobs - the great example is the auto industry (admin, design, manufacturing, sales, service, accessories, roads, gasoline, lubricants, steel, plastics, traffic cops and on). But what happens when the jobs that the industry creates require intellectual capabilities that are beyond half the population?
TaoX
Reply #19 Monday, July 28, 2003 3:20 PM
Reply #19 Monday, July 28, 2003 3:20 PM
yeah, the same way no one would ever 'clone' someone? They'll give robots AI, no doubt about it.
TheSkinsFactory
Reply #20 Monday, July 28, 2003 4:52 PM
Reply #20 Monday, July 28, 2003 4:52 PM
Rely on the human race to be smart enough? That's even scarier than the article.
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Reply #1 Sunday, July 27, 2003 3:46 PM
Provacative image too by the way