Hurricane Isabel
Sunday, September 14, 2003 by Xerraire | Discussion: WinCustomize Talk
Anyone (like me) in its possible path?
(I am in Maryland)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W5+GIF/081203W5.gif
(I am in Maryland)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W5+GIF/081203W5.gif
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Aqua.
Reply #22 Monday, September 15, 2003 9:22 AM
Reply #22 Monday, September 15, 2003 9:22 AM
North Carolina, uncomfortably close to the coast, I feel like I have a giant bullseye painted on me 
Heck, we get storm surge and flooding even when the hurricanes pass without even touching the coast.
Heck, we get storm surge and flooding even when the hurricanes pass without even touching the coast.
GhoS
Reply #23 Monday, September 15, 2003 2:37 PM
Reply #23 Monday, September 15, 2003 2:37 PM
Well I don't expect to get hit hard here in Mass., but its still too early to say who will get it most. By wednesday I think they can be more sure. Right now they say up here we might not get much effects. Even so people are already worried, I think that's a bit much. I work in a store and they are asking for radios, in case the storm hits.
Why do people do that? Lose their heads when a hurricane is coming? Sure lets stock up on plenty of refrigerated food, then if the power goes out, we'll lose more..... It makes sense to be prepared, but use your head.
Why do people do that? Lose their heads when a hurricane is coming? Sure lets stock up on plenty of refrigerated food, then if the power goes out, we'll lose more..... It makes sense to be prepared, but use your head.
CerebroJD
Reply #24 Monday, September 15, 2003 2:43 PM
Reply #24 Monday, September 15, 2003 2:43 PM
I'd better watch out here in Alberta Canada! 
Seriously though, we're due for our first snow tonite or tommorow.
Seriously though, we're due for our first snow tonite or tommorow.
Aqua.
Reply #25 Tuesday, September 16, 2003 5:46 AM The track has shifted, the little dotted centerline now goes directly overhead
Reply #25 Tuesday, September 16, 2003 5:46 AM
The track has shifted, the little dotted centerline now goes directly overhead
Christopher Murray
Reply #26 Tuesday, September 16, 2003 7:21 AM
Reply #26 Tuesday, September 16, 2003 7:21 AM
I'm a maryland boy too! Today is a beautiful day...not a cloud in the sky, which is good weather for climbing up to my roof to unclog my gutters before Isabel swings by.
KarmaGirl
Reply #27 Tuesday, September 16, 2003 7:48 AM
Reply #27 Tuesday, September 16, 2003 7:48 AM
We had unexpected hail here yesterday (and a really low low last night). I
can only imaging that Isabel is playing tricks with the weather. But, as I
said yesterday when it started with the cold rain "Fall has fallen" on
Michigan. (Which, I'm OK with because I love fall!)
can only imaging that Isabel is playing tricks with the weather. But, as I
said yesterday when it started with the cold rain "Fall has fallen" on
Michigan. (Which, I'm OK with because I love fall!)
Xerraire
Reply #28 Tuesday, September 16, 2003 8:33 AM
Reply #28 Tuesday, September 16, 2003 8:33 AM
KarmaGirl
My favorite season is autumn too!
Christopher, where in Maryland are you?
My favorite season is autumn too!
Christopher, where in Maryland are you?
Grog
Reply #29 Tuesday, September 16, 2003 8:41 AM
Reply #29 Tuesday, September 16, 2003 8:41 AM
Um Aqua where exactly are you at? If I might Ask? Since when I look out my window that Track line is going right over my head also 
Aqua.
Reply #30 Tuesday, September 16, 2003 10:07 AM
Reply #30 Tuesday, September 16, 2003 10:07 AM
Fayetteville, NC
I'm looking at three weather sites right now. One has the predicted course nailing Washington D.C. head on, one has it nailing me head on, and the other one shows it going feet dry somewhere in Virginia.
Since my last post the one that had it aiming it towards me has been updated, now it'll look like we'll still get hurricane force winds, but no longer being cored.
I'm looking at three weather sites right now. One has the predicted course nailing Washington D.C. head on, one has it nailing me head on, and the other one shows it going feet dry somewhere in Virginia.
Since my last post the one that had it aiming it towards me has been updated, now it'll look like we'll still get hurricane force winds, but no longer being cored.
Fuzzy Logic
Reply #31 Tuesday, September 16, 2003 10:11 AM
Reply #31 Tuesday, September 16, 2003 10:11 AM
Clear blue sky, no wind and 80°F here in the UK.
We've usually started our Autumn storms by now, but not this year
We've usually started our Autumn storms by now, but not this year
Christopher Murray
Reply #32 Tuesday, September 16, 2003 3:29 PM
Reply #32 Tuesday, September 16, 2003 3:29 PM
Xerraire - I'm in Towson Maryland, just north of Baltimore. Even with the perfect weather today the grocery store was packed, the bottle water isle empty. Guess we take this stuff seriously, just in the past year we've have terrorists, snipers, massive blizzards and now possibly Isabel?
C
C
Xerraire
Reply #33 Tuesday, September 16, 2003 4:58 PM
Reply #33 Tuesday, September 16, 2003 4:58 PM
Gotta love Maryland! I am in Harford County! Just moved here from Anne Arundel County.
I think I am at a higher elevation than my last residence at least!
But we are surrounded by water no matter where you go.
Before the hurricane got here we already have had one road flooded yesterday, - did you hear that one?
I think I am at a higher elevation than my last residence at least!
But we are surrounded by water no matter where you go.
Before the hurricane got here we already have had one road flooded yesterday, - did you hear that one?
Aqua.
Reply #34 Tuesday, September 16, 2003 5:37 PM
Anne Arundel County is nice I lived in Cape Saint Clair for a couple of years (a few miles north of Annapolis)
Glad I moved, I was only one block from the beach, I wonder if the house will still be there in a few days...
Reply #34 Tuesday, September 16, 2003 5:37 PM
Anne Arundel County is nice I lived in Cape Saint Clair for a couple of years (a few miles north of Annapolis)Glad I moved, I was only one block from the beach, I wonder if the house will still be there in a few days...
The Rated PG
Reply #35 Tuesday, September 16, 2003 5:46 PM
Reply #35 Tuesday, September 16, 2003 5:46 PM
going to Myrtle Beach South Carolina tommorrow to check out the waves By the way I'm an Air force Meteorologist. Pray for those in the path of Isabel. 
By the way I'm an Air force Meteorologist. Pray for those in the path of Isabel. 
Bones2112
Reply #36 Tuesday, September 16, 2003 6:44 PM
Where at in Harford County? Thats where I am located, in Edgewood nice to see some locals 
Reply #36 Tuesday, September 16, 2003 6:44 PM
| Gotta love Maryland! I am in Harford County! |
Where at in Harford County? Thats where I am located, in Edgewood
nice to see some locals 
Bones2112
Reply #38 Tuesday, September 16, 2003 8:23 PM
Reply #38 Tuesday, September 16, 2003 8:23 PM
cool just hope this hurricane leaves us alone, too much water round here if ya know what i mean!! Im done swimming for the summer
just hope this hurricane leaves us alone, too much water round here if ya know what i mean!! Im done swimming for the summer
The Rated PG
Reply #39 Wednesday, September 17, 2003 5:31 AM
Reply #39 Wednesday, September 17, 2003 5:31 AM
5 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2003
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT ISABEL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
STRENGTH OR ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 6 HR. THE LATEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 958 MB...AND THE MAXIMUM 700
MB WINDS THUS FAR ARE 103 KT. THE AIRCRAFT IS REPORTING A 25-NM
WIDE EYE SIMILAR TO A FEATURE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...
THE AIRCRAFT FIXES ARE SOUTHWEST OF THE SATELLITE FIXES...AND THERE
IS NO WIND MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPARENT EYEWALL. INDEED...
THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS 50-70 NM. THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN
95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/8. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ISABEL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A DEEP-
LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A LANDFALL IN EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 36 HR...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS DOWN
THE MIDDLE OF THIS GUIDANCE. AFTER LANDFALL...ISABEL SHOULD TRACK
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR PERHAPS NORTHWESTWARD FOR 12 HR OR SO...THEN
RECURVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD IN FRONT OF THE STRONG DEEP-
LAYER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES.
THE NEAR-UNANIMOUS GUIDANCE MAKES THIS A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...BUT THOSE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD NOT LET
DOWN THEIR GUARD JUST IN CASE THE GUIDANCE PROVES TO BE UNANIMOUSLY
WRONG.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS VERY PROBLEMATIC. ISABEL CURRENTLY
LACKS A TIGHT CENTRAL CORE AND STRONG CONVECTION...AND EVEN IN
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY BE SLOW TO INTENSIFY. VERTICAL
SHEAR AND POSSIBLY DRY AIR STILL SEEM TO BE AFFECTING THE
SYSTEM...SO ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT
FOR AT LEAST 12 HR UNTIL THE NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND IMPROVES THE
OUTFLOW. EVEN THEN...THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER THE SHEAR WILL
DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRENGTHENING. AN ADDITIONAL COMPLICATION
IS A SURFACE FRONT BETWEEN ISABEL AND THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
WITH OBSERVATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OF COOL AIR WITH
DEWPOINTS BELOW 20C. INGESTING THAT AIR WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT
STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN 95 KT UNTIL
LANDFALL BASED MAINLY ON THE PREMISE THAT THE LARGE AND SPRAWLING
VORTEX WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND TO CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENT...
EITHER FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE. HOWEVER...OTHER POSSIBLE
SCENARIOS INCLUDE STRENGTHENING DUE TO FORCING FROM THE TROUGH...
AND WEAKENING DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR AND COLD AIR INTRUSION.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT ISABEL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
STRENGTH OR ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 6 HR. THE LATEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 958 MB...AND THE MAXIMUM 700
MB WINDS THUS FAR ARE 103 KT. THE AIRCRAFT IS REPORTING A 25-NM
WIDE EYE SIMILAR TO A FEATURE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...
THE AIRCRAFT FIXES ARE SOUTHWEST OF THE SATELLITE FIXES...AND THERE
IS NO WIND MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPARENT EYEWALL. INDEED...
THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS 50-70 NM. THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN
95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/8. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ISABEL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A DEEP-
LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A LANDFALL IN EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 36 HR...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS DOWN
THE MIDDLE OF THIS GUIDANCE. AFTER LANDFALL...ISABEL SHOULD TRACK
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR PERHAPS NORTHWESTWARD FOR 12 HR OR SO...THEN
RECURVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD IN FRONT OF THE STRONG DEEP-
LAYER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES.
THE NEAR-UNANIMOUS GUIDANCE MAKES THIS A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...BUT THOSE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD NOT LET
DOWN THEIR GUARD JUST IN CASE THE GUIDANCE PROVES TO BE UNANIMOUSLY
WRONG.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS VERY PROBLEMATIC. ISABEL CURRENTLY
LACKS A TIGHT CENTRAL CORE AND STRONG CONVECTION...AND EVEN IN
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY BE SLOW TO INTENSIFY. VERTICAL
SHEAR AND POSSIBLY DRY AIR STILL SEEM TO BE AFFECTING THE
SYSTEM...SO ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT
FOR AT LEAST 12 HR UNTIL THE NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND IMPROVES THE
OUTFLOW. EVEN THEN...THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER THE SHEAR WILL
DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRENGTHENING. AN ADDITIONAL COMPLICATION
IS A SURFACE FRONT BETWEEN ISABEL AND THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
WITH OBSERVATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OF COOL AIR WITH
DEWPOINTS BELOW 20C. INGESTING THAT AIR WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT
STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN 95 KT UNTIL
LANDFALL BASED MAINLY ON THE PREMISE THAT THE LARGE AND SPRAWLING
VORTEX WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND TO CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENT...
EITHER FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE. HOWEVER...OTHER POSSIBLE
SCENARIOS INCLUDE STRENGTHENING DUE TO FORCING FROM THE TROUGH...
AND WEAKENING DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR AND COLD AIR INTRUSION.
Aqua.
Reply #40 Wednesday, September 17, 2003 1:22 PM
Reply #40 Wednesday, September 17, 2003 1:22 PM
Thanks for the update Looks (from other maps) like I'll be on the edge of the hurricane strength winds instead of being cored as predicted earlier.
The east side of town is evacuating, but we've been told that the west side doesn't need to.
Looks (from other maps) like I'll be on the edge of the hurricane strength winds instead of being cored as predicted earlier.The east side of town is evacuating, but we've been told that the west side doesn't need to.
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Reply #21 Monday, September 15, 2003 5:54 AM
just rain, though.