Ever since I read this story I can't get it out of my thoughts every so often:

http://marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm

Frogboy posted it as a news story a week or so ago here:

https://www.wincustomize.com/newsboard.asp?id=1819


I posted the link for my class to read (my class is mostly in school and part on line) and we had a whole 15 minute discussion on it. The conclusion was mostly nobody knowing what would happen. But I have to admit for the most part it looks scary and bleak.

Nevertheless I still see a large light at the end of the "computers and robots doing everything" road.

For example for most or more than 20% of the population unemployed would mean that they whole system that we have (voting, government, supply and demand) would have to change. Who would vote for a politician who could provide a way to secure jobs?


And for that matter, that amount of unemployed people would, at a social stand point, cause many problems with crime, depression, and other human factors that inflict other countries today.

Not to mention if the population has no money, how do companies like Wal-Mart, McDonalds, Macy*s exist? They would have to cut allot of costs to survive the lack of clientele.

I think only B2B companies would survive in that kind of climate.


I felt after reading it that it was actually not taking into account that the world of customizing a product could become a major way of making money.

Not that I think skinning will be large by itself, I think the idea of knowing how to customize for interfaces like what most of what we do here at this site just can not be replaced.

So while Ford will loose costumers in a 20% of people are unemployed... maybe those who are not employed get hired by Bentley because their customers want hand made products.


Or better yet, someone buys a Ford Infinity DD but before it is delivered to the owner, it goes to a shop that customizes it with interior looks and styling and rims to match.



And I definitely have to say that IQ intelligence has nothing to do with it. Many drop out of things and become successful (after allot of work and maybe going back to school for hands on training). I would say many business makers in the past didn't even graduate out of highschool (early 1900's) But that was a different time, nevertheless I still believe that more ingenuity will come around when the 'normal' way of getting a job or holding on to one is gone.



When I was looking for a job, after a while I said to myself I have an ability and talent, why don't I hire myself? So I am actually looking into it. If anything for an extra cash a month (even if its 30 dollars )


Never wanted my own business because I know how hard it is and all the worry that goes into it.. and forget having employees!!! More drama.

Anyway, allot of things would have to change and allot of attitude would have to change as well in those 20 years mentioned in the story (or 50 for that matter... but it could happen I guess)


GDP would have to change and all the things that make up GDP would have to change as well.

Also, in Human Resources communities, and other business communities their is a trend toward group work and more self analyzing data and changing it into information. there is more or a trend toward individuals working or telecommuting to work. And you might be considered an outsource more than an employee; working as an sort of entrepreneur instead of an employee.

Even now a person is more likely to move to another job in 3 -5 years then stay 20 years (especially since human experts in a field is being replaced by computer Expert Support Systems.



So I think there will be more of a focus on art and design, people who are trained in tech or have their own business and contract their services... Traveling to another country to work a 9 to 5 (because air fares are cheap and fly at the speed of sound it takes 2 hours to get to Asia, India and Spain... and that's where the jobs are) because those countries do not have the tech, robots and other stuff that humans still do.


Does anyone think there could be positives to this move to a New Economy? (I know one downside... get use to jobless recoveries for a while as people get retrained or move to new areas for work)

=====================================
Notes:

GDP= Gross National Product

GDP = B + G + Xn + I
B = Profits from businesses
G = Government spending, government policies, government taxes
Xn = What is left after Exports are subtracted by Imports (Exports Net)
I = Investments



Structural Unemployment:

Changes over time in consumer demand and in technology alter the structure of the of the demand for labor
Here working on a farm or sewing clothes jobs may finish while designing software or maintaining computer systems may intensify. People have to find work in another field and during that time they are unemployed

Other definitions
Frictional unemployment
Full employment
Cyclical Unemployment

I have posted it on my blog:
http://joetheblow.modblog.com/core.mod?show=blogview&blog_id=12385