Can Linux go mainstream?

Tuesday, January 13, 2004 by Frogboy | Discussion: WinCustomize News

Linux will never make it mainstream on the desktop unless Microsoft does something incredibly stupid.

I fought in the trenches of the OS Wars back in the 1990s. During the height of the Microsoft-IBM battle for the desktop with Windows 3.1 vs. OS/2, myself and Dave Barnes from IBM went on the road together demoing OS/2 and OS/2 + Object Desktop to HP, Gateway, Dell, Compaq, and the rest in an effort to get OS/2 pre-loaded.

At the time, OS/2 was remarkably better. There was no debate about that. Windows 3.1 was a 16bit shell on DOS that could barely multitask, crashed constantly and had a primitive shell.  By contrast, OS/2 2.1 was a full 32 bit OS with preemptive multitasking, multithreading, an object oriented shell that could even run DOS, Windows as well as OS/2 programs.  OS/2 was a far better choice.

And OS/2 still lost. Linux advocates are stuck on the edges nit-picking some piddly issue here and there about Windows. It is very unlikely that ever again an OS will have such a clear and easy to see set of advantages like the kinds OS/2 had over Windows. And if OS/2, backed by IBM, couldn't defeat Microsoft, who in 1994/1995 was much less powerful than they are today, I just don't see what chance Linux has even if they do get their act together.

Which brings up the next issue, Linux advocates. Unlike Mac users who have a good reason to brag about MacOS X (particularly 10.3), Linux, as a desktop OS, is inferior. Its best argument for it is that it's "free".  But when you can get a Dell PC with Windows XP on it for $399 (including monitor), such arguments seem kind of weak.  Linux, as a desktop, feels taped together. It has so many rough edges. And it delivers no significant benefit over Windows for those rough edges.

That was ultimately what doomed OS/2 - by 1997 when Windows NT 4.0 was available and mature OS/2 wasn't delivering anything significant over Windows NT in exchange for the host of minor annoynces OS/2 had.  That new piece of hardware that either didn't work under OS/2 or required some weird tweaking. That program you wanted to try out that just didn't quite work under emulation in OS/2 for some reason. That web page that didn't display quite how it was supposed to because it was using ActiveX or some new version of Shockwave or whatever got old too.

OSes can get away with such announces if they provide something blatantly concrete in return. I just don't see what Linux delivers in exchange for the pains it requires of its users. Linux advocates on the net tend to fall into the old "OS/2 hard luck syndrome" (as we used to call it). Where for whatever reason, every possible problem one could have with Windows seemed to happen to Linux (or OS/2) advocates such as system crashing, lost data, fires, you name it. Such arguments are never compelling to normal users who found Windows ME (ack) "good enough" and Windows XP to be a panacea of stability. The same is true of arguments that boil down to "I don't need that feature." which regularly comes up when discussing software that isn't available or features missing in a "equivlanet" piece of software.

For these reasons, I think Linux will always be a hobbiest OS on the desktop and a good server OS for those either on a budget or who need to a very custom solution.

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Woodbridge
Reply #21 Wednesday, January 14, 2004 10:01 AM
If Linux came preinstalled and properly setup like some new Windows machines, then yes, it could go mainstream. (bare with me here)

Real life experiment. Just over a year ago, my brother (one the of the real Linux nerds) gave my mum a PC with Redhat installed. It was his old PC that he wiped clean and put a fresh install of Redhat on. He pre-setup all the hardware and made sure it was all working (internet etc), and presented my Mum with her new PC (ironically its a slower CPU shhhh!) Now back then my mum was an occasional Windows user (we're literally talking 2-3 times a month (bless )) but now she is an occasional Linux user, she can use OpenOffice, she can browse the internet and she can use email. All my brother told her is that the 'Red Hat' is the now the start button and the 'home' folder is My Documents. Everything is there in a logical place and she it quite content to use it as her desktop PC.

A lot of PC users don't do much (especially new users) other than pull their Dell PC (for example) from the box, plug it in and use it, without changing anything about it (it works! don't touch a thing you'll break it!)

However, we've all read the stupid stories that customer/tech support people have to deal with, imagine the horror stories with Linux.

"you need to type in ./configure then ./make and then ./make install into your console"

"but my PS2 doesn't have a keyboard"

So, a pre-installed, pre-setup Linux will be great, just take a leaf out of my mum’s book - don't su

Woodbridge - Son to a Geek mum
SalParadise
Reply #22 Wednesday, January 14, 2004 2:26 PM
well i've been using Linux regularly for over a year now and it is SUPERB.
It is not rough round the edges, taped together, inferior or in anyway less than Windows.
If you havent seen a recent Linux desktop i suggest you get over to http://www.kde-look.org and check out some of the screen shots.
Linux is coming, like it or not, to a desktop near you. Once the numbers reach a certain level, market economics will force the software houses like Adobe and Macromedia et al to begin coding for Linux platforms.
I can play both Unreal Tournaments, Quake3, Return to Castle Wolfenstein, Soldier of Fortune, Medal of Honour and many more on Linux. Mandrake Linux comes with hundreds of free programmes, office suites, media players, games, web browsers, compilers, programming suites and so on.

Why am I here then you might wonder.
Well,
I keep Xp on for my children to play one or two non linux compliant games on. And I've been skinning windows from this site for two or three years now.
But, really, Linux really does rock most awesomly. It's no harder than windows, it's just different.
smoke-tetsu
Reply #23 Wednesday, January 14, 2004 3:49 PM
"Well, there are plenty of them as window skinning, icon themes, fully custom desktops etc. for which a Windows user has to use third party software. that´s what you´re doing with your company, don´t you"

Yes, there are plenty of icons and themes. However, all software on Linux is third party because as a whole Linux isn't developed by one company. And no, the distro companies don't count. Linux is just a kernel so as soon as you add anything, you are using third party software. It's layers upon layers of third party software.

In my opinion though it doesn't matter if the software is first, or third party as long as it works.
ToeJo
Reply #24 Wednesday, January 14, 2004 3:59 PM
Wow...I never knew there was this much passion, for an OS of all things. This type of passion for a product could be what is needed to push it over the edge. But, I must agree with Frogboy...XP works well for what I do everyday. If we were talking about Win95 It would be a different story.

But be careful...when your passion for something turns into aggression...then you have lost me and my Windows friends. I have an open mind and will try anything...as long as it is presented well.

As for my computer controlling me...get a clue. There is nothing I hate more than stuiped comments made about a general group of people that has no basis. Keep that trash to yourself and you'll fare more respect from all of us.
Star Rider
Reply #25 Wednesday, January 14, 2004 6:11 PM
Wow is right...from pointing out that Froggy was compairing an OS to
Apps that is a stretch.
Windows is also total 3rd party. Do they not use/play games, movies,
Read and write programs? What the Issue is, Being Mainstream Desktop
and the truth is as many have pointed out, it depends on the reason for the system.
Let's say you work every day with Unix/Linux and you go home and want to go on-line but the computer at home now has windows on it, wow
where did my OS go? Thry do the same things in different ways, this would not be good would it cause now you have to WORK and LEARN in order to make the new OS do what you want.
Do beware! Almost ALL schools in this country use MAC's/OS 9or10 and
when they come home to do Computer work They all complain as to where
or how to do something. Now they Really like my RED HAT and yes they
can and do right code and have made small tools that almost instantly drop right into thier MACs at school! Can't do it with anything MS
Try Making a game with windows unless you use 3rd Party Tools.
Linux HAS all the Tools with it, and the ones that don't are coded in a snap or you can see what this is really about.
Can you make the next WINDOWS *.* Not you don't have thr Kernal.
Linux/GNU have it right, You want the next cool toy to play with or a more TAYLORED Script writer/reader cause Notepad is not quite enough and Wordpad isn't really worth it. SEE with Linux you can. Yes there is tons of APPs for Both, BUTTTT you still Cannot TAKE anything out of
windows without CRRAASHHHING or totally LOCKING up and Requiring a fistful or two of hair to fix your System.
Since the children of today want change now, they Will mostlikely choose Linux over Windows.
If you want to ride a Rice burnner is fine if you want a BIKE Well...
The HOG TAKES/GIVES more love and affection than the Rice Burnner.
Yeah more people own KAWs than HOGs, the Question is do you want a BIKE or do you want a ride?
XX
Reply #26 Wednesday, January 14, 2004 6:58 PM
Ummm "Try Making a game with windows unless you use 3rd Party Tools."

You can write and compile programs with .NET framework for free. You pay just for IDE itself when you buy vb.net or vs.net or whatever.

"BUTTTT you still Cannot TAKE anything out of
windows without CRRAASHHHING or totally LOCKING up and Requiring a fistful or two of hair to fix your System."

You can remove lot of things, such as games, notepad, word, outlook express without damaging windows to inoperatiable.

95% of computers users use windows of any version.
3% uses linux.
2% uses macs.
terdog
Reply #27 Thursday, January 15, 2004 3:35 PM
Well, personally, I have to agree with David Howe, as I dont think Linux will ever go Mainstream, unless the whole community gets behind one version of it and stick with that one version, there are just too many version's of linux out there for poeple to have to try out. WIth that said, I do have a pc here at home that I run linux on (web server), and its very stable, dosent crash, and dosent get the security problesms that Windows gets.

But for day to day use, I use a copy of Windowx XP Pro, however, it didn't come pe-loaded with the system, I bought it with my hard earned funds with I built my box, so as far as Im concerned, Windows isnt forced upon anyone, just build your own pc, (or have one custom built), and tell them you want linux as the main OS.

As for versions of Linus, I perfer Maxdrake, fast, comptable with all the newer hardware (and lots of older hardware), and its cheap ($100 $150 Canadian...)
messybuu
Reply #28 Thursday, January 15, 2004 5:27 PM
The segregation that Linux users advocate does work against them. Although they might enjoy it, I'm sure that many will agree with me when I say that one should be able to reliably copy and paste from one application to another. It's simply better when things work well together even if it means a little bloat, which Linux has as well except without the benefit.
TheD2JBug
Reply #29 Saturday, January 17, 2004 10:42 AM
Bottom line is this.

On Windows I work WITH my PC ( when I'm not messing with my desktop )

On LInux I work ON my PC ( Gettinmg stuff that works out of the box with Windows to work )

WHat's the point in being able to compile a bloody kernel when you can't get basic application support sorted .
dukeofchutney
Reply #30 Sunday, January 18, 2004 12:17 PM
Back in '99 I tried installing SuSe on a spare PC I had - after fiddling about with the installer I got the OS installed, well after a fashion, but that was it.

I could SEE there was a truckload of apps to play with, but I had no obvious way of getting at them, as a "DOS-like" cursor was blinking on the screen in front of me insisting I input a password which I couldn't remember being asked to set up in the first place, plus there was no way I was going to figure out how to load a GUI (which is the way I prefer to work) from there without a manual or set of instructions of some description - none of which I had to hand as the CD didn't come with one (paper-back/hard copy, forget trying to print off the one on the CD as the PC wasn't up and running properly yet) and my "other" PC was at work and this was the weekend.

So I gave up, wiped the drive and stuck Win95 back on, and to this day I've never gone back to try Linux again...

Thinking about it, I'd love to have another shot, but after the aforementioned experience it's going to have to come pre-installed and set up for immediate or almost immediate use. Problem is here in Plymouth, UK I'm not aware of a single store in town (or even further afield) which sells Linux pre-installed.

Dare I say: "I rest Frogboy's prosecution case"?
Ender2070
Reply #31 Sunday, January 18, 2004 9:07 PM
If SuSE keeps it up, I think it can become mainstream or at least get to where AMD is in their battle with Intel.

On another note. I've used OS/2 Warp 3/4, DOS, Windows 95/98/98SE/ME/2000/XP/2003 and Linux (Redhat, Mandrake, SuSE, Debian, Slackware), FreeBSD and BeOS.

I think Linux is awesome.
Aqua.
Reply #32 Monday, January 19, 2004 12:17 AM
At home, I own four computers, one is an Apple, the other three are IBM compatible (methinks that phrase has outworn its welcome), one running Win XP Pro 3.0, one running Win 98, one running DOS 3.0. At school I use Linux daily as well as Unix, Windows 2000, and Windows XP Pro.

I have this to say about Apple, Windows, Linux, and Unix.....

Apple is beautiful, well laid out, and as slow as a Pentium II quite often.
Unix is exceptional for specific tasks, and I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole for others.
Windows 98 was good enough for some things, but terrible at the things Unix is best at, and crashy to boot.
Windows XP is awesome at most things, but is only fairly good at the things Unix excells at.
Linux is a total pain in the arse. The only things I've found it to be better at than the other operating systems are server functions and programming applications. I also hate having to drop into terminal mode all the time. On top of that, the version of Redhat we're using at FSU is even slower than OSX if you can imagine that!

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