Vista Sales Slow? It's Those Darn Pirates!
Because the software pirates would otherwise purchase Vista...
Monday, February 19, 2007 by Zoomba | Discussion: WinCustomize News
Last week we mentioned that Microsoft was backing away from sales forecasts that it's now calling "aggressive" for Windows Vista through 2008. A lot of people marked slow sales up to a combination of hardware and software support lagging, and the lack of compelling reasons to move away from Windows XP considering how stable of an OS it has become in the last 5 years.
However, it seems Microsoft sees the issue a bit differently.
In the same call last week with analysts saying that estimates on sales were overly aggressive, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer says one way to improve sales is to tighten the screws on pirates through strengthening of the Windows Genuine Advantage protection system. Claiming "Piracy reduction can be a source of Windows revenue growth..."
Specifically mentioned, was targeting emerging markets in Asia, currently hotbeds for software piracy.
The question is, will making it harder to pirate encourage more sales? Or will these protections just prove a minor annoyance that will just take a little while longer for hackers to overcome? And what will be the cost to legal users who find themselves having to prove their "legal" copies to Microsoft in the future?
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Philly0381
Reply #2 Monday, February 19, 2007 12:46 PM
Reply #2 Monday, February 19, 2007 12:46 PM
For me the comments by Steve Ballmer pretty much reflect how I feel we, as a society, try to answer our ills. If we have a headache we take an aspirn rather than find out what caused the headache. I don't believe that Asian Pirates has affected Vista sales this early in its release. Could it be that the consumers are not accepting the advertising and want more tangible upgrads for their money than new GUI's and animated wallpaper? I know Vista is more than that, but is it enough. 
BerserkerPup
Reply #3 Monday, February 19, 2007 1:08 PM
Reply #3 Monday, February 19, 2007 1:08 PM
I'm a person who has had legal copies of all of my Windows products, but I am personally tired of the hoops I'm having to jump through before I can update anything, the increasing number of bits of software that call home to Redmond, the fact that music I legally purchase becomes inoperable when I try to transfer it to another computer THAT I OWN, and the fact that when I buy a computer I don't get a full copy of the OS on disk.
It's not pirates, it's the fact that we've all wised-up and realized that we no longer need the latest "new thing" because finally with XP we've got an "old thing" that actually works well, compared to the previous OS's we were told were the best "new thing". For a lot of us, we just don't see the need to upgrade to a more powerful computer just so that we can run Vista at its optimum level. We wanted an OS that would work better with the equipment we currently have, but Microsoft apparently couldn't achieve that goal.
It's not pirates, it's the fact that we've all wised-up and realized that we no longer need the latest "new thing" because finally with XP we've got an "old thing" that actually works well, compared to the previous OS's we were told were the best "new thing". For a lot of us, we just don't see the need to upgrade to a more powerful computer just so that we can run Vista at its optimum level. We wanted an OS that would work better with the equipment we currently have, but Microsoft apparently couldn't achieve that goal.
Adamness
Reply #4 Monday, February 19, 2007 1:23 PM
Reply #4 Monday, February 19, 2007 1:23 PM
I don't really get this. Microsoft designed an operating system that's designed for future use, and complain that it's not selling today. Most computers today will struggle to run all the features of Vista at full speed, but maybe in a year hardware will catch up to Vista. I don't see a problem with software out-pacing hardware, especially for an OS that will be around for years. But when they complain, it's just silly. If Microsoft wanted Vista to sell better immediately after release, they would have had a lower price and make it able to run on the average computer someone has today. Otherwise, they need to be quiet and wait a couple years.
Excalpius
Reply #5 Monday, February 19, 2007 2:27 PM
Reply #5 Monday, February 19, 2007 2:27 PM
Ballmer is just covering his ass with the stockholders. He sold a lot of hype that everyone with a brain (meaning few tech stock analysts) knew was a load of crapola. So now, when sales run along the lines of what I predicted (Vista getting to consumers only with new computers), he tries to present an excuse. Maybe they have new DRM legislation before Congress they want to lobby for. Ahem.
A) Vista is heavily weighted towards early adopters right now - meaning US.
Most early adopters already have it or have already tested it.
C) We've made it clear that Vista is NOT ready for primetime and comes with a lot of upgrade headaches and costs associated with it
D) We write the articles in print and post online about Vista
E) Ergo, no one is rushing out to upgrade existing machines, but wisely waiting on their next computer purchase
If I was Apple, I'd go all out to get Windows users this year - "If you're buying a new computer for Vista, compare a Mac while you're at it".
Consumers see Vista as XP+, plain and simple.
A) Vista is heavily weighted towards early adopters right now - meaning US.
Most early adopters already have it or have already tested it.C) We've made it clear that Vista is NOT ready for primetime and comes with a lot of upgrade headaches and costs associated with it
D) We write the articles in print and post online about Vista
E) Ergo, no one is rushing out to upgrade existing machines, but wisely waiting on their next computer purchase
If I was Apple, I'd go all out to get Windows users this year - "If you're buying a new computer for Vista, compare a Mac while you're at it".
Consumers see Vista as XP+, plain and simple.
Excalpius
Reply #6 Monday, February 19, 2007 2:36 PM
Reply #6 Monday, February 19, 2007 2:36 PM
Here is a typical Vista peculiarity - clearly beyond the capability of normal end-users to solve themselves:
I'm a power user. I run this test machine as Administrator.
I'm testing Vista now, so I turned off UAC very quickly.
Testing Quake 3, runs fine for the past week if I use Run as Administrator from shortcut.
Yesterday, for now apparently reason, Punkbuster (part of Quake 3) starts booting me for OS exception errors.
I try to set the Run as Administrator option in shortcut. Can't. Grayed out.
Try to set it on the actual application. Grayed out.
Now, I am supposed to be running as admin already, so this makes sense. Why would I need to run as admin?
Well, the solution was that I had to TURN UAC ON (which caused ObjectDock to fail*), then set Run as Admin in the app (and shortcut for good measure), then TURN UAC OFF again to get back to a useable testbed (and to get ObjectDock to work again*).
Now, everything appears to work flawlessly.
Soooooo, when is running as an administrator NOT running as an administrator? When you're running as an Administrator with UAC off under Vista. Ahem.
Number of home end users who run games like Quake 3 and newer? Millions.
Number of home end users who can debug an issue like this? Nigh Upon Zilch.
Cost to Microsoft in bad word of mouth every time these things build upon one another? Priceless.
*Side note to Stardock: When I turned UAC back on again, sysstats docklets on ObjectDock lost the ability to communicate with the system for info and some of my autohiding docks won't appear anymore. When I turned it back off, ObjectDock returned to its normal, stable behavior. Just FYI. I won't be the only person to run into this, I expect.
I'm a power user. I run this test machine as Administrator.
I'm testing Vista now, so I turned off UAC very quickly.
Testing Quake 3, runs fine for the past week if I use Run as Administrator from shortcut.
Yesterday, for now apparently reason, Punkbuster (part of Quake 3) starts booting me for OS exception errors.
I try to set the Run as Administrator option in shortcut. Can't. Grayed out.
Try to set it on the actual application. Grayed out.
Now, I am supposed to be running as admin already, so this makes sense. Why would I need to run as admin?
Well, the solution was that I had to TURN UAC ON (which caused ObjectDock to fail*), then set Run as Admin in the app (and shortcut for good measure), then TURN UAC OFF again to get back to a useable testbed (and to get ObjectDock to work again*).
Now, everything appears to work flawlessly.
Soooooo, when is running as an administrator NOT running as an administrator? When you're running as an Administrator with UAC off under Vista. Ahem.
Number of home end users who run games like Quake 3 and newer? Millions.
Number of home end users who can debug an issue like this? Nigh Upon Zilch.
Cost to Microsoft in bad word of mouth every time these things build upon one another? Priceless.
*Side note to Stardock: When I turned UAC back on again, sysstats docklets on ObjectDock lost the ability to communicate with the system for info and some of my autohiding docks won't appear anymore. When I turned it back off, ObjectDock returned to its normal, stable behavior. Just FYI. I won't be the only person to run into this, I expect.
Double Zero
Reply #7 Monday, February 19, 2007 3:42 PM
Im
Im going to have to disagree with that entirely... Im running Vista Ultimate on a machine I built a little over 3 years ago, and according to Vista's cute little rating system the box rates a 4.0 which apparently is a pretty decent score with 5.9 being the highest on their scale...
4.0 is your lowest hardware score, that just happens to be my Vid Card (big surprise there huh?) But the card im using is old (and pretty damn cheap these days) it's an Asus 9600XT with an ATI chip..works great, runs Dreamscene just fine... I see no reason to go out and get the latest, greatest Vid Card... Everything else rated in the high 4's to 5's on a 3 year old Mod...
Point is..the Hardware is out there to run Vista, has been for quite awhile, if your PC wont run it and it is something that you really want, then perhaps it is time for those long overdue upgrades, Hmmm?
Personally I would not have gotten Vista myself if it werent for my misfortune of having everybody I know call me when their PC breaks down, or they want upgrades..I really need to stay current so I have an idea where to begin on a system, other than that I am more than satisfied with XP..
Vista reminds me of the change from 95 to 98... 98 was clearly a better OS, but the changes were subtle.. Vista is allot like XP, but it *Is a better OS ...
As for a reason to switch...Other than staying current or a need to be familiar with the OS..I really cant name one.. XP is a *Great OS and I can understand why allot of people are satisfied with just sticking with it...
Until they begin to heard the users towards the OS by stopping support and creating more of a "need" to run Vista, I just dont think Vista will ever do as well as forcasted..
It isnt Pirates or Harware issues..If you want to blame something..Blame XP...
Reply #7 Monday, February 19, 2007 3:42 PM
Most computers today will struggle to run all the features of Vista at full speed, but maybe in a year hardware will catch up to Vista.
Im
Im going to have to disagree with that entirely... Im running Vista Ultimate on a machine I built a little over 3 years ago, and according to Vista's cute little rating system the box rates a 4.0 which apparently is a pretty decent score with 5.9 being the highest on their scale...
4.0 is your lowest hardware score, that just happens to be my Vid Card (big surprise there huh?) But the card im using is old (and pretty damn cheap these days) it's an Asus 9600XT with an ATI chip..works great, runs Dreamscene just fine... I see no reason to go out and get the latest, greatest Vid Card... Everything else rated in the high 4's to 5's on a 3 year old Mod...
Point is..the Hardware is out there to run Vista, has been for quite awhile, if your PC wont run it and it is something that you really want, then perhaps it is time for those long overdue upgrades, Hmmm?
Personally I would not have gotten Vista myself if it werent for my misfortune of having everybody I know call me when their PC breaks down, or they want upgrades..I really need to stay current so I have an idea where to begin on a system, other than that I am more than satisfied with XP..
Vista reminds me of the change from 95 to 98... 98 was clearly a better OS, but the changes were subtle.. Vista is allot like XP, but it *Is a better OS ...
As for a reason to switch...Other than staying current or a need to be familiar with the OS..I really cant name one.. XP is a *Great OS and I can understand why allot of people are satisfied with just sticking with it...
Until they begin to heard the users towards the OS by stopping support and creating more of a "need" to run Vista, I just dont think Vista will ever do as well as forcasted..
It isnt Pirates or Harware issues..If you want to blame something..Blame XP...
I.R. Brainiac
Reply #8 Monday, February 19, 2007 4:12 PM
I agree...that and the price.
Reply #8 Monday, February 19, 2007 4:12 PM
If you want to blame something..Blame XP...
I agree...that and the price.
NightTrainthedark
Reply #9 Monday, February 19, 2007 4:44 PM
Reply #9 Monday, February 19, 2007 4:44 PM
Logically (in an uneducated way)..
If most peoples current PC's couldn't handle running Vista, why dd microsoft expect people to go running out to buy Vista? Wouldn't their sales be reflected slowly as people buy new PC's? In that case they aren't getting retail prices for Vista.
I think Microsoft had their heads up their butts on this one. Sometimes..if you build it, they won't come.
If most peoples current PC's couldn't handle running Vista, why dd microsoft expect people to go running out to buy Vista? Wouldn't their sales be reflected slowly as people buy new PC's? In that case they aren't getting retail prices for Vista.
I think Microsoft had their heads up their butts on this one. Sometimes..if you build it, they won't come.
Fourth Letter
Reply #10 Monday, February 19, 2007 4:48 PM
Reply #10 Monday, February 19, 2007 4:48 PM
Price plain and simple. Here in the UK we are paying £ for $ price. A complete joke considering how much stronger the £ is compared to the $. Bill Gates was actually asked about the difference and the worlds richest man claimed "he wasn't sure of the exact currency valuation" !!!!!! RIP OFF !!!!!!! As already said cut the price in half (at least) and the world and its granny will run to upgrade.
OEM copys seem to be the best value but I'll be waiting to upgrade before i tie Vista to a hardware set for activation.
Pirates don't steal sales they steal software.Turning up WGA will lower sales and turn people to XP and MACs.
OEM copys seem to be the best value but I'll be waiting to upgrade before i tie Vista to a hardware set for activation.
Pirates don't steal sales they steal software.Turning up WGA will lower sales and turn people to XP and MACs.
Adamness
Reply #11 Monday, February 19, 2007 4:53 PM
Well there's your answer. I'm sure you built a pretty nice machine 3 years ago. My computer is 3 years old...3.4GHz Pentium 4, 1GB RAM, 128 vid card, 100GB HD. But I'm sure you know that most people never get the top of the line performance machines that a power user has. My dad's computer is 4 years old...1.4 GHz, 256MB RAM, integrated video. And I'd guess that about average for a 3 or 4 year old computer. I agree that the hardware is out there, and has been out there. The problem is that very few people actually have it.
Even today, not all new computers are completely up to Vista requirements. Dell sells the E521, probably the most common Dell sold, with only integrated graphics and 1GB of RAM.
Then again, the people who still have computer that are well out of the range of Vista, probably don't know what Vista is in the first place.
Reply #11 Monday, February 19, 2007 4:53 PM
Im going to have to disagree with that entirely... Im running Vista Ultimate on a machine I built a little over 3 years ago, and according to Vista's cute little rating system the box rates a 4.0
Well there's your answer. I'm sure you built a pretty nice machine 3 years ago. My computer is 3 years old...3.4GHz Pentium 4, 1GB RAM, 128 vid card, 100GB HD. But I'm sure you know that most people never get the top of the line performance machines that a power user has. My dad's computer is 4 years old...1.4 GHz, 256MB RAM, integrated video. And I'd guess that about average for a 3 or 4 year old computer. I agree that the hardware is out there, and has been out there. The problem is that very few people actually have it.
Even today, not all new computers are completely up to Vista requirements. Dell sells the E521, probably the most common Dell sold, with only integrated graphics and 1GB of RAM.
Then again, the people who still have computer that are well out of the range of Vista, probably don't know what Vista is in the first place.
warreni
Reply #12 Monday, February 19, 2007 4:58 PM
Well, I don't have any direct experience with Vista personally. I didn't beta-test it or rush out to buy an upgrade the minute it came out.
However, it does seem like we've had this conversation before. Software publishers seem to really like blaming software piracy for lower-than-anticipated sales figures, but I can't imagine, just as Zoomba pointed out, that increasing Windows "safeguards" translates into an automatic increase in Vista sales. It does seem likely that this is PR and a certain amount of BS, as well.
I have to disagree with Double Zero on one point on the basis of my personal experience:
While I concur that many changes in Win 98 were subtle, I found it to be a vastly buggier OS than 95; my personal experience of using both 95 and 98 on several computers over many years was that I experienced many more crashes and fatal errors on 98. But, this is a bit OT.
For the most part, I'm inclined to agree with Adamness and Excalpius. I don't believe that the majority of users see enough "wow-factor" differences between Vista and XP to have them run to the nearest retailer with a few hundred bucks. It also doesn't help that most of the published reports indicate that the average person who doesn't have a dual-core CPU or the latest-gen GPU will not see as much utility from upgrading. It makes a lot of economic sense for folks like that (like me) to wait until time for a new hardware purchase.
Reply #12 Monday, February 19, 2007 4:58 PM
Well, I don't have any direct experience with Vista personally. I didn't beta-test it or rush out to buy an upgrade the minute it came out.
However, it does seem like we've had this conversation before. Software publishers seem to really like blaming software piracy for lower-than-anticipated sales figures, but I can't imagine, just as Zoomba pointed out, that increasing Windows "safeguards" translates into an automatic increase in Vista sales. It does seem likely that this is PR and a certain amount of BS, as well.
I have to disagree with Double Zero on one point on the basis of my personal experience:
Vista reminds me of the change from 95 to 98... 98 was clearly a better OS, but the changes were subtle..
While I concur that many changes in Win 98 were subtle, I found it to be a vastly buggier OS than 95; my personal experience of using both 95 and 98 on several computers over many years was that I experienced many more crashes and fatal errors on 98. But, this is a bit OT.
For the most part, I'm inclined to agree with Adamness and Excalpius. I don't believe that the majority of users see enough "wow-factor" differences between Vista and XP to have them run to the nearest retailer with a few hundred bucks. It also doesn't help that most of the published reports indicate that the average person who doesn't have a dual-core CPU or the latest-gen GPU will not see as much utility from upgrading. It makes a lot of economic sense for folks like that (like me) to wait until time for a new hardware purchase.
BiffBKStudmuffin
Reply #13 Monday, February 19, 2007 5:27 PM
Reply #13 Monday, February 19, 2007 5:27 PM
Its funny that they are blaming it on piraters, since i remember them saying that "Vista will not be able to be pirated" or something along that line.
XX
Reply #14 Monday, February 19, 2007 5:31 PM
I certainly have money to upgrade to OEM vista ultimate. One slight problem is that none of my computers can run it decently. It all comes down to money. Last time I had to upgrade computer in order to run a newer OS was windows 98, and it was okay since windows 98 was just 100 bucks and I just needed to upgrade ram and cpu. Now? I would have to replace an entire computer.
I doubt that everyone has enough money to upgrade computers.
Reply #14 Monday, February 19, 2007 5:31 PM
you really want, then perhaps it is time for those long overdue upgrades, Hmmm?
I certainly have money to upgrade to OEM vista ultimate. One slight problem is that none of my computers can run it decently. It all comes down to money. Last time I had to upgrade computer in order to run a newer OS was windows 98, and it was okay since windows 98 was just 100 bucks and I just needed to upgrade ram and cpu. Now? I would have to replace an entire computer.
I doubt that everyone has enough money to upgrade computers.
whiterabbit007
Reply #15 Monday, February 19, 2007 5:37 PM
Reply #15 Monday, February 19, 2007 5:37 PM
The saddest thing about this whole thing, is that 5-6 years from now they're going to repeat the whole thing with the next OS and chances are we'll have to buy some 3rd generation quantum 16-core chips with SLIx32 graphics cards, 2TB of RAM and 5000watt PSUs, and we'll still be getting crappy performance from the GUI! 
Double Zero
Reply #16 Monday, February 19, 2007 6:01 PM
Well Yeah I.R..The Price is ridiculous as well..Way out of control,It put a dent in my wallet, I had to go use the damn ATM..GRRRRRRRR...LoL.
LMAO, You know Adam, That is Soooo very true...I tell people all the time about Vista, it's like the first time they have heard of it..needless to say they arent real interested in hearing anything more about it after I mention it..it's just kind of shrugged off with something like "oh yeah?..Cool"
Well Warren, I guess you caught me...Yes I too am a bit "Buggy"..Perhaps thats why 98 and I got along so well, LoL..
Actually I am sorry to hear that your experience with Win98 was not a good one, it is not the same for everyone. Have you ever considered that the blame wasnt entirely the OS's fault?
At anyrate, it is waaay O/T but it was a simple observation that I had to share, I do know people that still use the OS and I cannot pry them away from it to save my life, Ugggggg!... I wish they would upgrade to XP, but unfortunately many people do not have the need or desire to move with the times and that is really their choice...
Mr XX, I believe the whole idea was to increase new PC sales... They would prefer you to buy a PC with Vista pre-installed..
These days?...I think you're right, people have other things more pressing than buying new PC's that have a few xtra frills..Buying Gasoline to get back and forth to work might just be one of them, LoL
Reply #16 Monday, February 19, 2007 6:01 PM
I agree...that and the price
Well Yeah I.R..The Price is ridiculous as well..Way out of control,It put a dent in my wallet, I had to go use the damn ATM..GRRRRRRRR...LoL.
Then again, the people who still have computer that are well out of the range of Vista, probably don't know what Vista is in the first place.
LMAO, You know Adam, That is Soooo very true...I tell people all the time about Vista, it's like the first time they have heard of it..needless to say they arent real interested in hearing anything more about it after I mention it..it's just kind of shrugged off with something like "oh yeah?..Cool"
While I concur that many changes in Win 98 were subtle, I found it to be a vastly buggier OS than 95; my personal experience of using both 95 and 98 on several computers over many years was that I experienced many more crashes and fatal errors on 98. But, this is a bit OT.
Well Warren, I guess you caught me...Yes I too am a bit "Buggy"..Perhaps thats why 98 and I got along so well, LoL..
Actually I am sorry to hear that your experience with Win98 was not a good one, it is not the same for everyone. Have you ever considered that the blame wasnt entirely the OS's fault?
At anyrate, it is waaay O/T but it was a simple observation that I had to share, I do know people that still use the OS and I cannot pry them away from it to save my life, Ugggggg!... I wish they would upgrade to XP, but unfortunately many people do not have the need or desire to move with the times and that is really their choice...
I doubt that everyone has enough money to upgrade computers.
Mr XX, I believe the whole idea was to increase new PC sales... They would prefer you to buy a PC with Vista pre-installed..
These days?...I think you're right, people have other things more pressing than buying new PC's that have a few xtra frills..Buying Gasoline to get back and forth to work might just be one of them, LoL
Cacanito
Reply #17 Monday, February 19, 2007 6:54 PM
Reply #17 Monday, February 19, 2007 6:54 PM
Teikoshen
Reply #18 Monday, February 19, 2007 7:13 PM
Reply #18 Monday, February 19, 2007 7:13 PM
Price and XP would be the number 1 killer of VIsta.
I live in malaysia, THe cheapest version of Vista OEM itself cost like 300+. Ultimate OEM cost 600+. Most stores here don't even carry real versions of Vista.
For a 3rd world country like us, 300+ is very very pricey for a software. It's no wonder that most people won't even look into VIsta. Only computer geeks like me will want to try it out, everyone else is happy with XP.
I live in malaysia, THe cheapest version of Vista OEM itself cost like 300+. Ultimate OEM cost 600+. Most stores here don't even carry real versions of Vista.
For a 3rd world country like us, 300+ is very very pricey for a software. It's no wonder that most people won't even look into VIsta. Only computer geeks like me will want to try it out, everyone else is happy with XP.
Juggernawt
Reply #19 Monday, February 19, 2007 8:11 PM
Reply #19 Monday, February 19, 2007 8:11 PM
Only thing that will make the Vista-sales pickup is when games start going DX10 and as MS has stated that XP will not run DX10 - people will have no choice but upgrade. Legally or illegally.
anotherpaul
Reply #20 Monday, February 19, 2007 8:56 PM
Reply #20 Monday, February 19, 2007 8:56 PM
The only people that get slowed down by anti piracy measures are the paying customers.
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Reply #1 Monday, February 19, 2007 12:33 PM