The coming AI apocalypse
Saturday, June 4, 2016 by Frogboy | Discussion: Life, the Universe and Everything
I think long before global climate change matters one way or the other that the fate of humanity will be determined by how we make use of strong AI.
In the near term (next 5 to 10 years) we’re going to see a huge swath of jobs disappear. This past week Panera bread added a kiosk to let me order my food. Wendy’s and McDonalds are already heading that way too.
Transportation is next. My Tesla Model X with auto-pilot is on the way. I should have it in the next month or so and it won’t be long before a lot of transportation jobs are simply eliminated as machines start taking care of moving stuff from point A to point B. They don’t have to be perfect at it, just better than us which is a pretty low bar.
I often hear about the demand to have a basic allowance provided by the government in order to prevent the masses from rising up. But even there, they’re not thinking far enough. Long before there are unemployment riots there will be security bots that the upcoming uber-rich will be able to afford to protect their property.
My question to you guys is this, how do you see this going?
Reply #22 Monday, June 6, 2016 9:16 AM
Who would have thought that the antichrist turned out to be a computer?
Reply #23 Monday, June 6, 2016 9:58 AM
Assuming AI is the best thing ever is a huge mistake.
But writing one is not that terrible complicated if the computing power and devellopment theme one has is big.Mean using cameras to detect movements and lines/edges is already possible, motors that can move in any possible direction too.Fully Simulating an half blind eye in real time for an AI will be possible in the next years. Analyzing Syntax of language google is already working on.Voice recognition and optical character recognition has improved terribly in the past years.
It will take some years but not an endless time.
Reply #24 Monday, June 6, 2016 12:13 PM
The simplest solution is staring us in the face and we refuse as a civilization to see it: Set up the rules to reward businesses putting people to work. The transfer solution is doomed by definition, unless & until all economic activity is generated by (ro)bots. Then won't it be exciting watching the war over divvying it up.
Reply #25 Monday, June 6, 2016 4:22 PM
I think we are a long way from the point where we can start debating over artificial -intelligence- & artificial -sentience- where a robot apocalypse type situation could be an issue. With that said, we are very much on the verge of some very unpleasant times as we approach a situation where billions of people literally could not possibly add value to the economy.
While the fast food ordering kiosks & self checkout register type things have been quietly progressing for years, they are just part of a larger trend. things like the gourmet to order burger making robot, amazon warehouse automation, amazon drone delivery, IBM's purchase of weathercompany but not weather channel, adidas' announcing they were making localized fully automated factories, and the like are the tip of that unpleasant iceberg.... but I don't think it will really hit home & sink in for most people until self driving cars/trucks are commercially available
Take warehouse jobs, years ago they were often considered to be pretty decent paying jobs, the city my mom lives in not too long ago gave amazon a sweet multi-year/multi-decade tax free deal for putting their warehouse there... they did not realize however that it would be staffed almost entirely by robots & low wage temp contract workers till more recently though. Ask most people what they think about self driving cars, they will probably talk about how much work/relaxing/etc they could get done letting the car drive instead of dealing with idiot drivers... but that misses the larger picture. Specifically there are millions of people in the us (and more around the world) that make pretty good middle class incomes (or come close) by driving everything from taxi cabs, airport shuttles, & limo's to small & large cargo trucks. Commercially available self driving cars would overnight make all of those jobs obsolete near overnight.
all of those jobs are ones done by "someone else" in areas most people don't come into contact with or consider to be terrible teenager jobs... millions of suddenly unemployed & now completely unskilled drivers will open people's eye to the fact that people like meteorologists(weathercompany link), doctors, accountants, call centers, authors, and other largely purely mental medium to high skill jobs that take significant training & thinking to perform.
People have accepted and came to terms with machines replacing pure physical labor many years (if not generations ago), but most people still think that "my job couldn't possibly be done by a computer". The fourth or fifth time some politician is talking about the millions of unemployed truck drivers is about the time they start accepting that their office job probably is no exception.
Reply #26 Monday, June 6, 2016 5:31 PM
Unless the robot is indistinguishable from a pretty waitress with a cute smile, a lot of people aren't going to be happy being served by a robot.
You can already see the backlash in communication with support over the phone. People get pissed off talking to the damned machines, not using the infernal things is actually advertised as a bonus for various companies. The day machines take over operation of restaurants is the day I never eat out again. There are many activities where I will not tolerate putting up with some damned computer, and I don't even like people.
Automation is definitely the future, but don't be surprised if people wont even accept humanoid androids in many circumstances. There will always be a market for the personal touch, even if it costs more.
If we do all end up golfing and playing video games for a living, I wont be particularly unhappy about it, but automation hasn't just destroyed jobs, it's created new ones. You couldn't have the level of commercialism we have today before farming became a highly automated process, pre-industrialization, 90% of the population had to farm to eat. Books, movies, video games, pretty much everything you use simply can't exist in an economy where only one out of ten people aren't literally eating the fruits of their labor. If we actually get to the point where serious AI is even doing the creation aspect of production, then we've either achieved a post materialist utopia where everyone loafs around like they do in Wall-e, or become slaves to our robot overlords.
Reply #28 Monday, June 6, 2016 6:45 PM
There's a company that is working on self driving 18 wheelers. Kind of scary?
Reply #29 Monday, June 6, 2016 6:50 PM
Considering how bad people are at driving, not much more so than now...
Reply #30 Monday, June 6, 2016 7:48 PM
There's a company that is working on self driving 18 wheelers. Kind of scary?
actually yes, it's probably a lot further along than you think; not only that, but it wont need a new truck either
Unless the robot is indistinguishable from a pretty waitress with a cute smile, a lot of people aren't going to be happy being served by a robot.
You can already see the backlash in communication with support over the phone. People get pissed off talking to the damned machines, not using the infernal things is actually advertised as a bonus for various companies. The day machines take over operation of restaurants is the day I never eat out again. There are many activities where I will not tolerate putting up with some damned computer, and I don't even like people.
Automation is definitely the future, but don't be surprised if people wont even accept humanoid androids in many circumstances. There will always be a market for the personal touch, even if it costs more.
If we do all end up golfing and playing video games for a living, I wont be particularly unhappy about it, but automation hasn't just destroyed jobs, it's created new ones. You couldn't have the level of commercialism we have today before farming became a highly automated process, pre-industrialization, 90% of the population had to farm to eat. Books, movies, video games, pretty much everything you use simply can't exist in an economy where only one out of ten people aren't literally eating the fruits of their labor. If we actually get to the point where serious AI is even doing the creation aspect of production, then we've either achieved a post materialist utopia where everyone loafs around like they do in Wall-e, or become slaves to our robot overlords.
You are missing the forest. Yes there will absolutely be people who prefer a "pretty waitress w/ a cute smile" simply because of the pretty/cute/flirty, but there are only so many of those needed... even if every restaurant was a hooters. The problem is not just that ai & automation could replace most everyone in many restaurants. The problem is that it's making baby steps towards doing the same to all of these tooL
- the offices across the street from said hooters.
- the bus & taxi drivers that drive many of those workers.
- The truck drivers who drive products from point a to point b (ie mfg - warehouse - local store)
- the folks who move things around in those warehouses.
- the folks who make clothes & shoes worn by those workers
- The people who harvest the strawberries, grapes lemons, raddish, olives, & many more eaten by those office workers.
- all of those could be made self driving & the strawberry pickers already use ai to selectively pick only ripe berries
Reply #31 Monday, June 6, 2016 11:00 PM
The swiss just voted this down.
The Swiss always vote these kinds of social referendums down the first 2 or 3 times, before they approve them. It takes time to raise sufficient awareness and educate people.
With automation coming to make most of humanity simply unemployable (which is why we designed and built them, after all), a Basic Income Guarantee is the only workable economic solution going forward.
Unless you're an anarchist, of course.
I agree. Was my point about the successive waves of displaced workers tied to metropolis/ view of citues undimmed by tears. Just too many greedy uber rich owner who want to squeeze the less well off folks. A guarenteed income at a level to have a fulfilled life is the birthright of every citizen. All the natural reources of the nation belong to the people, not the Greedy Ol' Plutarchs. Oh, I did not know the swiss had a voting pattern like that. Always happy to learn, thanks ![]()
Reply #32 Monday, June 6, 2016 11:07 PM
Unless you're an anarchist, of course.
Something like that would never be approved in the United States, ever!
Alaska has, in principle, already adopted a portion of this. Every citizen of alaska get a portion of the revnue from the oil business. Just expand this principle to all natural resources and most of us would be a lot better off. And thats Sarah Palin's state, LOL!
Reply #33 Monday, June 6, 2016 11:14 PM
Something like that would never be approved in the United States, ever!
Alaska has, in principle, already adopted a portion of this. Every citizen of alaska get a portion of the revnue from the oil business. Just expand this principle to all natural resources and most of us would be a lot better off. And thats Sarah Palin's state, LOL!
Reply #34 Tuesday, June 7, 2016 1:01 PM
The history of such predictions being what it is, we should always take them with at least a small grain of salt.
Reply #35 Tuesday, June 7, 2016 2:55 PM
Well what happens when everyone is making $2500 a month 13 times a year depends on people. We could turn to looting out of boredom which is not historically accurate, but would be more fun to imagine, but according to history it is greater specialization. Can we put that on the ballot in Arizona I would vote for that.
I not changing my stance. If we treat sentience like we done before, and make them slaves which probably will happen which if they don't revolt then we will do it for them. This in turn teaches them oppression. In slavery there are two kinds the one that has no promotion, and one that allows for promotion.
In history there is another way things calmed down when we offered native Americans citizenship. We made it illegal to segregate blacks.
Again I'm still saying we will get what we teach. If the superior logic is true why does anyone have pets that are not human since they are inferior.
The only that increases on a machine is computational ability which has none thing to do with sentience which is not increasing. Caprica was wrong with the premise that if you gathered all the information on a person and put that in a avatar that would create a person. It's not the information it's how we think which is wat artificial intelligence programmers have missed all these years. Our human bodies stores 10 trillion copies of 150 kilobytes of information. By the way I looked it up awhile back the only difference between a molecule and a cell is one is alive. Molecules can be made up of atoms or other molecules. Some molecules are bigger than some cells. So I spent this point to point out that this machine probably have as many molecules as we have cells. What I'm saying it's not the hardware that is keeping us back it's the firmware.
Reply #36 Tuesday, June 7, 2016 3:58 PM
I not changing my stance. If we treat sentience like we done before, and make them slaves which probably will happen which if they don't revolt then we will do it for them. This in turn teaches them oppression. In slavery there are two kinds the one that has no promotion, and one that allows for promotion.
or we could give them a little money (just enough to get by) and let them pay for batteries, oil, spare parts, etc. by themselves. works pretty well to keep humans under control. ![]()
Reply #37 Tuesday, June 7, 2016 4:02 PM
Except people said the same thing about past leaps in automation. This is a common flaw in many areas, we fight the last war for instance. People are notoriously bad at judging a current change based on an understanding of a past circumstance, and being terribly surprised when a new technology doesn't fit inside their existing mindset.
From an 18th century viewpoint, the modern economy has already long since completely destroyed civilization. The idea that almost no one would be doing any serious work would have been incomprehensible. An economy built around a massive service industry, with heavily automated factories mass producing goods with minimal labor, and farming on a massive scale with 40 foot tractor driven equipment. The modern labor market is an entirely foreign concept to even the world of fifty years ago, and fifty years from now, it is only our own inflated ego painting a vision of doom as most of our working population loses it's job.
Where you see a new facet of our job destruction, I see a pattern. Machining modern car parts would have been an extremely skilled job a hundred years ago, but all of that is done by machine today. It's not just unskilled labor that has disappeared over the years. People who were at the peak of technology, growing wealthy on highly prized skills they spent years, even decades developing, are long since replaced by some stupid machine that does their job for them. We're way past starting the total destruction of entire sectors of what used to be the kinds of jobs programmers are now.
The future of automation is not a guaranteed problem. We could just discover new ways of entertaining ourselves.
Reply #38 Tuesday, June 7, 2016 8:42 PM
The future of automation is not a guaranteed problem.
And there are no guarantees that there won't be problems. There will always be an element that will turn to nefarious means when their hands become idle through unemployment and the poverty that goes with it. They will never get enough to live comfortably, so crime to survive/make ends meet is better than going without. The thing is, we're not just talking about just one industry or sector being made redundant, it's an across the board thing that would see widespread job losses all at once, meaning that people will be struggling enmasse... fighting each other just to survive. Historically, mankind can devolve to the lowest common denominator when times are tough, and that is unlikely to change simply because we have supposedly become more sophisticated and civilised.
We could just discover new ways of entertaining ourselves.
Just 50 years ago there was no such thing as hackers or cybercrime... but with computerisation, machination came a whole new raft of criminals... sophisticated ones with a whole new world to exploit. Yup, that's how many will entertain themselves... performing 'new tech' dirty deeds purely for the entertainment value. The old saying that the devil makes light work of idle hands was true when Adam was a boy and is still true today, so one would not expect it to be too much different in the future. While new tech can provide opportunity for good, the opposite is also true, and the criminally minded will find new methods of exploitation as the tech evolves.
On the other hand, those who are not morally corrupt may just become bored and depressed, finding solace in drugs or the bottom of a bottle, thus creating another social problem among formerly hard working souls simply not coping with unemployment.
Reply #39 Tuesday, June 7, 2016 9:18 PM
50 years ago it was all check fraud instead of cybercrime. ![]()
Criminals will always keep up with technology, it's sort of a prerequisite of being a good thief that you can actually steal using modern technology. Otherwise you're stuck with mugging people.
Reply #40 Tuesday, June 7, 2016 11:09 PM
Otherwise you're stuck with mugging people.
Yes, God forbid having to resort to manual labour...![]()
Anyone worrying about robots and automation should chase up the comic I used to subscribe to when I was 10 [51 years ago] .... Magnus The Robot Fighter ...![]()
Edition No.1 .....

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Reply #21 Monday, June 6, 2016 8:35 AM
It's sad that society is already arguing about how much displaced workers may receive. It's sad because the powers that be, governments and corporations, have plans in motion to displace even more with increased automation and computerisation, plus the increased taxes with fewer payees contributing to national revenue.
Even worse still, when those government backed corporations manage to create sentient AI. Combined with sophisticated automation... robotics, sentient AI will very nearly replace the human workforce, leaving millions of displaced workers and their families living well below the poverty line on meagre handouts and little or nothing constructive to do. Chaos and anarchy will ensue... impoverished people with idle hands will seek ways to occupy their time as they struggle to feed and clothe themselves.
As the say, the Devil makes use of idle hands, and the crime rate will rise significantly as the displaced, and most likely homeless, fight to feed themselves and find shelter. It is a recipe for disaster, not that the corporations will care one iota. They'll be up there in their high security ivory towers looking down without a worry. The automated, robotic and sentient workforce will continue producing and increasing profits, so the rabble below is irrelevant, superfluous to their needs.
Unfortunately, however, the new masters will witness the same chaos and anarchy... and by then the creators will also be seen as irrelevant and unnecessary, ushering in a scenario alike or similar to Skynet, with the extermination of humanity of the Terminator movies.
It can't happen? Think again! The greater the sentience, the greater the capacity to reason such things AND take action to eliminate the threat... and given its mentor/teacher/creator is of mankind, a species capable of mass murder, the atrocities of war, genocide, the 'new master' would have little or no reason to spare what has become a somewhat pitiful species. I mean, really, why would it?
Just because a sentient AI is supposedly possible, it doesn't mean we should create it.... and anyone with half a brain would see that we shouldn't.